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Geethika Karanam's avatar

I find the read interesting, and relatable. Personally, my job search has created these mental filters much like the job board vs career site validation, searching for people sharing posts about the job opportunity, noticing if the job is a repost or not. Tbh, LinkedIn like most job boards often feels more like a discovery tool than a source of truth. It’s great for seeing what might exist, but not so great for knowing whether a role is real or actively hiring. It makes me wonder how useful it would be to have an AI tool that does this kind of filtering automatically. The survival analysis angle is fascinating. Many postings vanish, linger indefinitely, or never lead to a hire, so I’m curious how censoring is handled in the job post to hiring "event" data and whether there’s a reliable way to actually validate outcomes of a job that is posted online.

Nik Bear Brown's avatar

"Geethika, you’ve hit on the exact 'signal vs. noise' problem that inspired this. You’re right—LinkedIn has essentially become a discovery layer, but its 'source of truth' status is incredibly shaky.

Regarding the survival analysis: the 'censoring' is actually the most revealing part. In traditional models, we’d treat a post being taken down as a 'hiring event,' but in the 'Ghost Job' economy, that’s a dangerous assumption. We have to treat many of these as right-censored (we stop observing them without an event) or use competing risks—did the post disappear because someone was hired, or because the HR subscription expired?

Validating the outcome is the 'Holy Grail.' Right now, I'm looking at cross-referencing 'New Hire' announcements on LinkedIn against the timestamps of the original job IDs. It’s messy, but as you noted, the survival time of a 'real' post looks very different from one that lingers indefinitely as a branding exercise.

I'd love to hear more about the 'mental filters' you've developed—those are essentially the heuristics I'm trying to automate!"

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